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Lifting Sanctions on Iran-Analysis

Posted by on Jan 19th, 2016 and filed under FEATURED, Recent Posts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

DR. MINHAJ QIDWAI

lifting-iranaian-sanctionsAFTER more than a decade of tough negotiations, the economic sanctions against Iran were finally lifted on January 16, 2016. This announcement came after the meeting on July 14, 2015, when the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council— China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States— plus Germany), the European Union, and Iran agreed on a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA limited the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in return for relief from oil and financial sanctions.

So what are the implications of lifting of these sanctions on Iran?

Impact on Iran:

· A much relieved Iran, will reopen the Iranian economy to global trade.
· The lifting of sanctions will also open the door for foreign investors to invest in Iran.
· Economic growth of Iran.
· Recover billions of dollars in frozen assets.
· Investment and technology-starved Iran will be able to rehabilitate its energy sector, which has been hit hard by international sanctions.
· The Islamic Republic is holding parliamentary elections on February 26, and President Rouhani’s team should gain electoral support if the sanctions have been lifted by then.

Impact on oil market:
With the anticipated lifting of sanctions, Iran was preparing to ramp up its crude output. This extra oil in the market will produce tough competition among the existing players. May lead to further reduce the price of oil.

Economic Collapse?
With the reduction of price of oil, economic melting may witnessed. Will it lead to an economic collapse?

Impact on Middle East:
Iran, with its new positioning in Middle East will have a positive impact on the Shia population in the Middle East. This will be a challenge to Saudi Arabia.

Diplomacy Worked:
Although, Americans or the Israelis could have used force to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, but this could have backfired on them. It could have caused human catastrophe, to which both were cognizant of the fact. So, sanity prevailed and the super powers joined hands to enforce Iran to make a deal on this issue.

Softening of Ties with Americans:
The Iranians anticipating the lifting of sanctions, handled the capture of Americans sailors without any qualms. Exchange of Iranians in Iranian jails and those in American Jail was also swapped.

Victory for President Obama:
The credit of the deal can be given to President Obama and his team. This can give satisfaction to him as a victory achieved in his office without using force.

Israeli reaction:
Israelis may get a temporary relief from this deal. However, lifting of the sanctions will lead to economic growth of Iranians, which can be more deadly than the nuclear bomb. Iran will be having more funds to support its like-minded organizations in the region and play a vital role in shaping the future middle east.

Impetus to Islamic divide:
With Shia dominance in the region, Saudi Arabia will feel threatened. This may lead to strengthening the coalition already formed by them. More restrictions on the Shias in Saudi Arabia and in neighboring countries. Will it lead to any arms clash? Apparently not at this time, as proxy wars will continue. However, with both sides better equipped any small incident can flare up the chances of a full blown arms conflict in the region. The Islamic State may also take benefit and can make things go worse in the region.

Global governance:
It has been some time now, that we have been hearing on the establishment of one world government or the new world order or global governance. However, the last nail in the coffin is the destruction of the demon Islam and Muslims. Strengthening of Iran at one end by the global powers and preparations of Saudi Arabia for a coalition to fight Iran could lead to an arms conflict. This will ultimately annihilate Muslims, to which the global powers look forward as a last step towards the establishment of one world government and thus global governance.

To conclude, the lifting of sanctions against Iran will bring prosperity for Iran, but will it deter it from continuing on its missile program and covertly working on the nuclear program? Iranians are definitely smart and have bought time to come out of the current economic crises. They have also proven their civility by successfully negotiating with the super powers, showing a glimpse of the civility they brought in the golden era of Islamic rule. Iranian economic power will shake the Bedouin warriors, who will leave no effort to counter them. Will it be through the continuing proxy wars or a full scale arms conflict need to be seen? However, for Muslim Ummah, both are not desirable. Muslim unity and sanity at all levels should prevail. The world should rejoice on the occasion to reiterate that wars can also be fought with diplomacy by adopting a win win approach for both sides.

Dr. Minhaj A. Qidwai is a Marketing, Management, and Education consultant. He can be reached at qidwaiminhaj@yahoo.com

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